Toby Samuel vs Ahmed Zaki

Highlights

• • Market drastically overprices the favorite (implied ~95%).
• • Fair price based on our estimate is ~1.333; current 1.05 offers no value.

Pros

• + Toby has more wins than losses (14-12) and experience on similar surfaces.
• + Market consensus clearly favors Toby, indicating a straightforward match-up if opponent is weak.

Cons

• - Provided form details are mixed and do not justify near-certain market pricing.
• - No information on Ahmed Zaki in the research; uncertainty could hide value but cannot be quantified.

Details

We compare the market price (Toby Samuel 1.05 implied ~95.2% win probability) to our estimated true probability. Toby's career record (14-12, ~53.8% overall) and mixed recent form do not support a ~95% chance to win against an unknown opponent. Conservatively, we estimate Toby's true win probability at 75.0%. At that probability the fair decimal price is ~1.333; the current price 1.05 is far shorter and produces negative expected value. There is insufficient information on Ahmed Zaki to justify an upset-back strategy, so the market price is overconfident and not bettable at current odds.

Key factors

• • Market implies a ~95% chance for Toby (1/1.05) which is inconsistent with his 14-12 career record (~54% wins).
• • Recent match list shows mixed outcomes and does not indicate dominant form to justify odds near 1.05.
• • No reliable data on Ahmed Zaki in the provided research, increasing outcome uncertainty and preventing a justified upset estimate.