Toby Samuel vs Edison Ambarzumjan
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on Edison Ambarzumjan at 7.5 — we estimate his true win chance at ~15%, which makes the 7.5 price positive EV (~12.5%).
Highlights
- • Market overstates Toby Samuel's certainty (1.05) relative to available performance data
- • Edison’s recent play in Hurghada and both players’ modest records create upset potential
Pros
- + Clear positive EV at available odds (7.5 > 6.667 fair threshold)
- + Edison has venue-specific recent matches on the same surface
Cons
- - Both players have small sample career records — high uncertainty in true probabilities
- - Heavy favorite price means any model misspecification or overlooked factor could be costly
Details
The market heavily favors Toby Samuel at 1.05 (implied ~95%), but Samuel's career record (14-12 over 26 matches) does not indicate overwhelming dominance over peers and Edison Ambarzumjan (7-8) has recent match experience at Hurghada on hard courts. Given both players have limited sample sizes and both have hard-court experience, we assign Edison a materially higher upset chance than the market implies. Using an estimated true win probability for Edison of 15%, the fair price would be ~6.667. The offered 7.5 therefore contains positive expected value: EV = 0.15 * 7.5 - 1 = +0.125 (12.5% ROI). We prefer the away side only because it shows clear positive EV at the available odds; the heavy favorite price on Samuel appears overstated relative to the limited performance data.
Key factors
- • Samuel's 14-12 record shows modest edge but not dominance
- • Ambarzumjan has recent hard-court matches in Hurghada (venue familiarity)
- • Bookmaker price (7.5) implies a much lower upset probability than the limited data supports