Highlights

• • Market implies Gentzsch ~42% but we estimate ~48% true chance
• • Minimum fair decimal odds for value is ~2.083; current 2.38 exceeds that

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current market price
• + Stronger documented win-loss profile in the supplied research

Cons

• - Surface mismatch/unclarity (match listed on grass while research shows clay/hard results)
• - No head-to-head or clear surface-specific form to reduce uncertainty

Details

We see a pricing gap: the market rates Kilian Feldbausch as a clear favorite at 1.606 (≈62.3% implied) while Tom Gentzsch is offered 2.38 (≈42.0% implied). Gentzsch's career record in the research sample (55-26) is stronger than Feldbausch's (36-29), suggesting a higher baseline win probability than the market implies. There is surface uncertainty (match listed on grass while most recent documented matches are on clay/hard), so we apply conservative adjustment for surface risk but still find value on Gentzsch. Using an estimated true probability of 48.0% for Gentzsch to win, the minimum fair decimal price would be 2.083; the quoted 2.38 therefore offers positive expected value. At the current quoted odds (2.38) the EV = 0.48*2.38 - 1 = +0.142 (≈14.2% ROI). We recommend the home side only because EV is positive at the present market price, but we rate risk as medium due to surface/data uncertainty and limited direct-comparison context.

Key factors

• • Tom Gentzsch has a stronger overall win-loss record in the provided profiles
• • Market heavily favors Feldbausch; Gentzsch's 2.38 price appears oversized relative to his documented performance
• • Surface listing is grass while available recent data is on clay/hard — increases uncertainty and tempers our probability estimate