Highlights

• • Tom's career record (≈62.5% wins) is significantly better than Sascha's (≈44.4%).
• • At 2.25, Tom needs only ~44.4% true chance to be profitable; our estimate is 58%.

Pros

• + Clear statistical edge in career win rate for Tom
• + Market appears to over-favor Sascha, creating a pricing inefficiency

Cons

• - Recent match listings show losses for both players on hard, increasing variance
• - No head-to-head data and limited event-specific context increases uncertainty

Details

We see a clear discrepancy between market pricing and the underlying career performance in the provided research. Tom Paris holds a stronger career win-loss record (40-24, ~62.5%) compared with Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg (28-35, ~44.4%). Both players have recent losses on hard courts, so surface exposure is roughly neutral; however, Tom's overall win rate and broader surface experience (clay, hard, carpet) point to a meaningful edge. The market is pricing Sascha as the favorite at 1.60 (implied 62.5%), but our read of the players' tracked form and career records suggests Tom is the more likely winner. Using a conservative estimated true probability for Tom of 58.0%, the current Tom price of 2.25 offers positive expected value (EV = 0.305 per unit staked). Therefore we recommend the home side only because the current decimal price (2.25) exceeds the min required odds implied by our probability estimate.

Key factors

• • Tom Paris career win rate materially higher (40-24 vs 28-35)
• • Both players have recent losses on hard courts — surface is neutral
• • Market favors Sascha at 1.60 despite weaker career record, creating possible mispricing