Highlights

• • Away implied probability (2.8%) appears below our conservative 4.0% true-probability estimate
• • Current odds (35.79) give strong positive EV (≈+43% ROI on a 1-unit bet) under our estimate

Pros

• + Significant positive EV at current quoted odds if our conservative probability is correct
• + Large payout relative to stake if the upset occurs

Cons

• - Extremely low absolute probability of success — longshot nature means high variance and frequent losing bets
• - Analysis lacks match-specific data (surface, injuries, head-to-head), so estimate is conservative but uncertain

Details

The market prices Tom Gentzsch as an overwhelming favourite at 1.024 (implied ~97.7%) and Francesco Forti as a longshot at 35.79 (implied ~2.8%). With no injury or form data available, we adopt a conservative adjustment for unforeseeable variability in tennis matches and estimate Forti's true win probability at 4.0% (home 96.0%). At that probability the fair decimal price for Forti would be 25.0, so the available price of 35.79 offers positive value. Calculation: EV = 0.04 * 35.79 - 1 = 0.4316 (43.16% ROI on a 1-unit stake). We favour the away side only because the current market price materially exceeds our conservative estimated true probability; if new injury/lineup or surface information reduces Forti's chance below our estimate, value would disappear. Given the magnitude of variance and likelihood of a low absolute win probability, this is a high-risk, high-variance value bet.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for the away player is very low (~2.8%), creating room for conservative upward revision
• • No available injury/form/H2H information increases uncertainty and the chance of an upset relative to a mechanical implied probability
• • Tennis outcomes can produce occasional longshot wins; a small upward adjustment to true probability yields substantial EV at very long odds