Tom Paris vs Maxime Janvier
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We recommend backing Tom Paris at 1.704 — our model gives him ~64% to win, creating ~9% ROI at the current price despite some surface-related uncertainty.
Highlights
- • Paris' career-winning rate (62.5%) is materially stronger than Janvier's (≈38%).
- • Current market odds (1.704) imply 58.7% — below our 64% estimate, producing positive EV.
Pros
- + Clear overall form edge by career win-loss metrics
- + Price affords a reasonable margin above our probability estimate
Cons
- - Match is on grass and Paris' profile lacks grass-specific experience listed
- - Research provided limited and partially inconsistent recent-match detail, increasing uncertainty
Details
We find value on Tom Paris. The market prices Paris at 1.704 (implied 58.7%). Paris' career win rate from the provided profile is 40-24 (62.5%), substantially better than Maxime Janvier's 26-41 (38.2%). While the match is on grass and Janvier has explicit grass experience whereas Paris' listed surfaces do not include grass, the overall form and much stronger win-loss record point toward Paris being the superior player at Challenger level. We estimate Paris' true chance around 64%, which is well above the market implied 58.7%, producing a positive expected value at the quoted 1.704 price. Key uncertainties that reduce confidence are the surface caveat (Janvier has grass listed) and limited detailed recent-match data in the research, so we set risk at medium despite the positive edge.
Key factors
- • Paris' superior career win-loss record (40-24 ≈ 62.5% win rate)
- • Janvier has grass experience while Paris' profile does not list grass — surface is grass
- • Market-implied probability (58.7%) is below our estimated probability (64%)