Tom Paris vs Robin Catry
Tennis
2025-09-13 23:51
Start: 2025-09-14 08:30
Summary
No pick
EV: -0.087
Current Odds
Home 1.452|Away 2.85
Best Odds
Match Info
Match key: Tom Paris_Robin Catry_2025-09-14
Analysis
Summary: No value on Tom Paris at 1.521 — market overstates his win chance relative to our estimate and grass-surface uncertainty reduces confidence in backing either player.
Highlights
- • Market implies ~65.7% for Tom Paris; our model ~60%
- • Lack of grass experience for both players is a meaningful unknown
Pros
- + Tom Paris has the better overall record and more matches played
- + Odds are widely available and liquid at the stated price
Cons
- - Both players lack grass-court history, increasing variance
- - Current price for Tom does not offer positive expected value
Details
We estimate Tom Paris is the stronger player based on a better overall record (40-24 vs 26-19) and larger match sample, but both players lack documented grass experience and recent form data is on hard courts. The market price of 1.521 implies a win probability of ~65.7%, which is higher than our assessed true probability of 60%; at the quoted odds there is no positive expected value. With limited surface data and comparable recent results, we prefer not to back either side at the current price.
Key factors
- • Both players have little-to-no documented grass match experience, increasing outcome uncertainty
- • Tom Paris has a stronger overall win rate and larger match sample (40-24 vs 26-19)
- • Market-implied probability (1/1.521 ≈ 65.7%) exceeds our estimated true probability (60%), producing negative EV