Highlights

• • Conor estimated true win probability ~55%; needs >58% to be +EV at 1.725
• • Tom would need >49.5% to be +EV at 2.02, which exceeds his recent performance level

Pros

• + Conor has more match experience and a higher career win rate
• + Both players have clay experience, reducing extreme surface bias

Cons

• - Very small samples and mixed surfaces make true probabilities uncertain
• - Both players recently lost, increasing variance and match unpredictability

Details

We estimate Conor Gannon is the stronger pick pre-match based on a larger sample (22 matches) and a better win rate (9-13) versus Tom Zeuch's limited sample (7 matches, 2-5). Both players show recent losses and limited clay-specific form, so uncertainty is high. The market prices Conor at 1.725 (implied ~58.0%) and Tom at 2.02 (implied ~49.5%). Our assessment of Conor's true win probability is ~55.0%, which is below the market-implied threshold (58.0%) required for positive EV at 1.725. Conversely, Tom would need a true win probability >49.5% to be +EV at 2.02, which is materially higher than his career win rate and recent form justify. Given small samples, mixed surfaces, no H2H advantage, and both players losing their most recent matches, neither side offers positive expected value at the quoted prices.

Key factors

• • Conor Gannon has larger sample size and better overall win rate than Tom Zeuch
• • Both players arrive in poor recent form with losses on 18-Aug-2025; small sample sizes increase uncertainty
• • Market prices Conor above our fair estimate (1.725 vs required ~1.818), so no positive EV at current odds