Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Forcano (~63%) conflicts with his 6-12 record and recent losses.
• • Home price 2.21 yields a positive EV (~21.6%) under our conservative true-probability estimate (55%).

Pros

• + Price (2.21) is above our min required odds (1.818) for positive EV.
• + Forcano's available form data shows clear vulnerability on the venue/surface.

Cons

• - Very limited data on Tomas Jordi Leston in the provided research increases uncertainty.
• - Estimate relies mainly on negative information about the favorite rather than strong positive evidence for the underdog.

Details

We compare market-implied probabilities to the available player form. The market prices Ignasi Forcano at 1.581 (≈63.3% implied) and Tomas Jordi Leston at 2.21 (≈45.3% implied). The only provided performance data shows Forcano with a 6-12 career record (≈33% win rate) and multiple recent losses in Monastir on hard courts, indicating form and results well below the market-implied level. Given that Forcano's recent matches in this venue/surface are losses and his overall record is weak, we estimate the true match-win probability favors the home player. At our estimated true probability for Tomas of 55.0%, the current home price 2.21 offers positive expected value (EV = 0.55 * 2.21 - 1 ≈ 0.216). We therefore recommend the home side because the market appears to overprice Forcano relative to the limited form data provided.

Key factors

• • Ignasi Forcano career record 6-12 (~33% win rate)
• • Recent losses in Monastir on hard courts indicate poor current form
• • Market implies Forcano ~63% win chance, which appears overstated versus available form data