Tomas Jordi Leston vs Toufik Sahtali
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on the home underdog at 3.88 because Sahtali's recent form and limited sample do not justify the market's ~83% implied probability; the 3.88 price produces positive EV under conservative estimates.
Highlights
- • Implied away probability (1.208) = 82.8%; our estimate for away is ~65%
- • Home break-even odds = 2.857; current 3.88 comfortably exceeds that
Pros
- + Large margin between current price and our conservative fair odds
- + Research shows away player in poor recent form on the same event/surface
Cons
- - Very limited data set and no direct profile provided for Tomas Jordi Leston
- - If market information (e.g., fitness, ranking, head-to-head) not in research favors Sahtali more than observed form, value could evaporate
Details
The market heavily favors Toufik Sahtali at decimal 1.208 (implied win probability ~82.8%), but the only research provided shows Sahtali with a limited 11-11 career record and poor recent form on the Monastir hard events (multiple recent losses). We view the market as overstating Sahtali's win chances given his run of form and volatility at this level. Conservatively estimating Sahtali's true win probability around 65% (and therefore Tomas Jordi Leston's true win probability ~35%), the available home price of 3.88 offers positive expected value. At our estimated 35% chance for the home player, the break-even decimal price is 2.857; the current 3.88 is well above that, producing an attractive EV.
Key factors
- • Sahtali's limited career sample (11-11) and uneven form in recent Monastir hard events
- • Market-implied away probability (82.8%) appears high relative to the provided performance data
- • Underdog home price (3.88) requires only ~25.8% true chance to be profitable; our conservative estimate is 35%