Highlights

• • Market favorite: Tomas Jordi Leston at 1.77 (implied 56.5%)
• • Under conservative assumptions the fair price is ~1.818 — current quote is too short

Pros

• + We are conservative in the absence of external information, reducing the chance of overestimating an edge
• + Clear threshold identified (1.818) for when the home side becomes +EV

Cons

• - No access to form, surface, injury, or H2H data increases uncertainty around our probability estimate
• - Small differences between our estimate and market-implied probability mean edges are marginal and sensitive to new information

Details

We have no independent form, surface, injury, or H2H data for either player, so we adopt conservative assumptions. The market prices show Tomas Jordi Leston as a slight favorite at 1.77 (implied win probability 56.5%) while Oliver Johansson is 1.95 (implied 51.3%); the two-book implied probabilities sum to ~107.8%, indicating a ~7.8% overround. Conservatively we estimate the home player’s true win probability at 55.0% based on the available price gap and the absence of supporting data for a larger edge. At that estimate the fair decimal price is 1.818, which is higher than the current 1.77 quote, producing a negative expected value (EV = 0.55 * 1.77 - 1 = -0.027). Because the current market does not offer prices above our threshold for a positive EV, we do not recommend a wager. If odds for Tomas Jordi Leston rise to ~1.818 or better (decimal), the bet would become +EV under our estimate.

Key factors

• • No independent form, surface, injury, or H2H information — we use conservative assumptions
• • Book market implies home win 56.5% but includes a substantial bookmaker margin (~7.8% overround)
• • Our conservative true-probability estimate for the home player (55%) is below the market-implied level, so no value at 1.77