Tomasz Berkieta vs Arthur Fery
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: The 1.07 quote for Arthur Fery is too short relative to our estimated ~88% win probability, so we do not find value on either side at current prices.
Highlights
- • Fery is the clear favorite based on records and surface fit
- • Current market price for Fery (1.07) implies a probability materially above our estimate
Pros
- + Analysis aligns with players' recent surfaces and win-loss profiles
- + Clear mathematical comparison between implied and estimated probabilities
Cons
- - Available research is limited (no detailed H2H or match-specific conditions)
- - Estimates rely on aggregated profiles rather than live match context
Details
We estimate Arthur Fery is the clear favorite based on the supplied profiles: Fery has a 30-9 record with strong recent results on hard courts, while Tomasz Berkieta's match history is concentrated on clay with weaker recent form. The market price (Away 1.07) implies a win probability of ~93.5%, which would require near-certainty. Using the available data we assign Fery a true win probability of 88% (reflecting superior record, recent hard-court form, and surface/experience advantage). At p=0.88 the fair decimal price is ~1.136, so the available 1.07 offers negative expected value (EV = 0.88*1.07 - 1 ≈ -0.058). Conversely, Berkieta at the current 7.0 would need a true chance >14.29% to be +EV; given his clay-oriented profile, recent losses and the quality gap versus Fery we estimate Berkieta's true chance ≈12% (consistent with Fery at 88%), which makes 7.0 unattractive because it still underprices the upset probability. Therefore no side presents positive EV at the quoted prices.
Key factors
- • Record and form gap: Fery 30-9 vs Berkieta 32-23, with Fery stronger on hard
- • Surface profile: Berkieta is clay-heavy; Fery has proven hard-court performance
- • Market overpricing: 1.07 implies >93% chance, not supported by the available match data