Tomasz Berkieta vs Cameron Norrie
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value at current prices: Norrie is the clear favorite but 1.05 is too short relative to our ~92% win estimate, producing a negative expected value; Berkieta’s price does not reflect a realistic upset probability.
Highlights
- • Norrie is strongly favored and plays across surfaces including hard
- • Berkieta comes from lower-tier events and has recent losses, limiting upset probability
Pros
- + Backing Norrie at 1.05 would be low variance (rare loss) if one wanted certainty
- + Market accurately reflects matchup gap — safe outcome probable
Cons
- - No positive expected value at current prices on either side
- - Berkieta’s long odds (8.5) overstate the realistic upset chance versus a higher-level pro
Details
We compare the market price (Cameron Norrie 1.05, implied ~95.2%) to a realistic win probability based on the available profiles. Norrie is clearly the superior, higher-level player with recent Grand Slam-level results and multi-surface competence; Berkieta's results come from lower-tier events and show recent losses. Given Norrie's quality we estimate his true win probability at ~92%, which implies fair decimal odds of ~1.087. At the quoted 1.05 the bet on Norrie has negative expected value (EV = 0.92*1.05 - 1 = -0.034). Conversely, Berkieta at 8.5 would need a true win chance >11.765% to be profitable; available information does not support that level of upset probability vs a player of Norrie's caliber. Therefore no value exists at current prices and we do not recommend backing either side.
Key factors
- • Cameron Norrie is a higher-level player with recent Grand Slam-level matches and multi-surface competence
- • Tomasz Berkieta's results are primarily at lower-tier events with recent losses, making a deep upset unlikely
- • Market price (1.05) implies ~95.2% — we judge true probability closer to ~92%, leaving negative EV on the favorite