Highlights

• • Away price implies an 81.3% win chance, which is unlikely given sparse and comparable records
• • Breakeven decimal for Papac is ~3.571; current 3.88 exceeds that threshold

Pros

• + Market overstates the away favorite based on limited data
• + Papac has slightly more professional match exposure and multi-surface experience

Cons

• - Very high uncertainty due to tiny sample sizes — results are volatile
• - If Stevens is underpriced due to unreported form/injury info we don't have, value disappears

Details

We see a large market skew toward Zane Stevens (implied ~81.3%) while Tomislav Edward Papac is priced at 3.88 (implied ~25.8%). Both players have extremely small professional samples (Papac 2-4 in 6 matches, Stevens 1-2 in 3 matches) and no clear head-to-head or injury information, so true win probabilities are highly uncertain. Papac has played slightly more matches and on both hard and grass, while Stevens' limited record is on hard; that parity and small sample argues against an 81% win chance for Stevens. We estimate Papac's true win probability at 28.0%, which implies a fair decimal price of ~3.571. At the listed 3.88, the home side offers positive expected value (EV = 0.28 * 3.88 - 1 = 0.0864). Given the available prices and the sparse, noisy data, backing Papac is a value play rather than a confidence pick.

Key factors

• • Very small sample sizes / limited professional match data for both players
• • Market heavily favors away player (implied probability ~81.3%) creating potential mispricing
• • Surface experience and match count slightly favor Papac, narrowing the gap vs the market price