Highlights

• • Favorite (Mishiro) price 1.30 implies a ~76.9% win chance; our estimate is 74.0%
• • Underdog would need >30.77% true chance to be +EV at 3.25, which we do not believe is justified

Pros

• + Market price reflects a clear favorite — reduces likelihood of overlooked value being large
• + Conservative stance protects bankroll when information is insufficient

Cons

• - If inside information or strong surface/H2H advantage exists that we're unaware of, value may be missed
• - Small inefficiencies could exist but are within our margin of uncertainty and not actionable

Details

We see Ryoma Mishiro heavily favored at 1.30 (implied ~76.9%). With no external data on form, surface, injuries, or H2H, we adopt a conservative estimated win probability for Mishiro of 74.0%. That is slightly below the market-implied probability, producing a small negative edge at the available 1.30 price. The underdog Tommy Edwards would need a win probability >30.77% to be +EV at 3.25; given the market skew toward Mishiro and lack of evidence to justify that high an underdog chance, we do not find a value opportunity on either side. Given the information vacuum, avoiding a side is the prudent, value-driven choice.

Key factors

• • No available data on form, surface preference, injuries, or recent results (high uncertainty)
• • Market implies a very strong favorite (Mishiro ~76.9%); our conservative estimate is lower (74.0%)
• • Underdog would need >30.77% win probability to be +EV at 3.25, which is not supported by available information