Top Esports vs Bilibili
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find a small value on Top Esports at 1.952 based on a conservative 52.5% win estimate, producing ~+2.5% EV; uncertainty is elevated due to no recent data.
Highlights
- • Estimated true win probability for Top Esports: 52.5%
- • Current home odds (1.952) imply slight value versus our fair price (1.905)
Pros
- + Modest positive expected value at current market price
- + Simple, conservative model that accounts for a small home advantage
Cons
- - No recent/form/injury/H2H data — outcome uncertainty is high
- - Edge is small (≈2.5% ROI) and sensitive to probability assumptions
Details
We assume a conservative slight edge to Top Esports (home) despite the market favoring Bilibili. The market-implied probabilities are Home 1/1.952 = 51.2% and Away 1/1.87 = 53.5% (book margin ~4.6%). Given lack of recent data, we apply a small home-side uplift and estimate Top Esports win probability at 52.5%. At that probability, the fair decimal price is 1.905 (1/0.525). The available home price of 1.952 is above our fair price, creating positive expected value: EV = 0.525 * 1.952 - 1 = +0.0248 (~+2.5% ROI). The away side at 1.87 yields negative EV under our estimate. We note high uncertainty due to no form/injury/H2H data, so the edge is modest and should be treated as a low-margin value opportunity.
Key factors
- • Market slightly favors away (Bilibili) but home uplift applied conservatively
- • No form/injury/H2H data available — increased uncertainty
- • Available home odds (1.952) exceed our fair price (1.905), producing small positive EV