Highlights

• • Bradshaw is the market favorite at 1.667 but our fair odds estimate is ≈1.887 (53% win probability)
• • We do not find positive expected value on either side given the provided profiles and current prices

Pros

• + Both players have hard-court/Monastir experience, so model uncertainty from surface is reduced
• + We apply a conservative probability estimate and avoid betting on marginal edges

Cons

• - Player recent-form details in the research are sparse and partially inconsistent, increasing model uncertainty
• - Market prices are relatively tight; favorite's price offers negative EV versus our estimate

Details

We compared the listed prices (Home 2.11, Away 1.667) to our assessment based on the provided player profiles. Toufik Sahtali is 11-11 on record (50% historical win rate) and has played Monastir/hard courts in recent results but shows mixed recent form. Jacob Bradshaw is 13-15 (≈46% historical win rate) with more matches played overall and mixed recent results in Monastir as well. Given the sparse and inconsistent recent-match detail, we assign a modest edge to Bradshaw (estimated true win probability 53%) due to slightly greater match volume and recent activity, but that probability implies fair decimal odds of ≈1.887. The market price of 1.667 for Bradshaw is too short relative to our estimate (EV = -0.116 at 1.667), and Sahtali at 2.11 also does not present clear value versus a conservative estimate of his win chance. Therefore we decline to recommend a side because neither price offers positive expected value versus our probability estimate.

Key factors

• • Season records: Sahtali 11-11 (50%), Bradshaw 13-15 (≈46%)
• • Both players have recent Monastir/hard-court activity; form is mixed and inconsistent in the provided logs
• • Market price for favorite (Bradshaw 1.667) is shorter than our fair odds estimate (≈1.887), producing negative EV