Highlights

• • Implied home probability 25.4% vs our 32% estimate — value gap exists
• • Breakeven decimal for Sahtali is ~3.125; current 3.94 is comfortably above this

Pros

• + Significant positive EV at current odds (≈0.261 per unit)
• + Comparable career records and surface familiarity support a higher true chance than market implies

Cons

• - Limited head-to-head and detailed recent-form data — estimate contains uncertainty
• - Echeverria is still the cleaner recent performer on paper and could justify the market price if form information is incomplete

Details

The market prices John Echeverria as a heavy favorite (implied ~82.0%) while Toufik Sahtali is priced at ~25.4% (3.94). Comparing both players' records on hard courts and recent results, their career win rates (Sahtali 11-11, Echeverria 19-18) are very similar and do not justify an 82% win probability for Echeverria. Sahtali has experience in Monastir and has played predominantly on hard, which narrows the quality gap. Given the sizable bookmaker margin and the closeness of underlying records, we estimate Sahtali's true win probability at ~32%, which is well above the breakeven threshold (25.38%) for the 3.94 price. At our estimate, the home selection offers positive expected value versus the current market price.

Key factors

• • Bookmaker-implied probability for the favorite (~82%) appears overstated relative to both players' comparable career records
• • Both players have hard-court experience; Sahtali has prior Monastir activity which reduces the gap
• • Market overround inflates favorite price; current underdog odds (3.94) exceed our fair threshold