Trevor Svajda vs Murphy Cassone

Highlights

• • Away price (1.82) implies ~54.9% — we estimate ~56.5%
• • Positive expected value but narrow margin (EV ~2.8%)

Pros

• + Cassone's recorded grass experience reduces surface uncertainty
• + Larger match volume and record suggest more reliable form estimation

Cons

• - Edge is small; outcome variance in a single-match tennis bet remains significant
• - Svajda has a strong overall record in the dataset provided (24-11) despite limited grass data, which injects uncertainty

Details

We estimate Murphy Cassone as the favorite on grass based on his documented experience on grass and a larger match sample (77 matches, 48-28) compared with Trevor Svajda whose available record shows mainly hard-court activity. Cassone's surface exposure and higher match count reduce variance and justify a higher true win probability than the market's implied price for the away player. Using our estimated true probability of 56.5% for Cassone versus the current away decimal of 1.82, the expected value is positive (EV = 0.565 * 1.82 - 1 = +0.0283). The market's implied probability at 1.82 is ~54.9%, so we view the book as slightly underpricing Cassone on grass. We therefore recommend backing the away player at the available price because it meets our EV > 0 threshold.

Key factors

• • Murphy Cassone has recorded play on grass in his profile; Trevor Svajda has no grass matches listed in the provided data
• • Cassone has a substantially larger match sample (77 matches) and overall record (48-28), lowering variance
• • Current market price (away 1.82) implies ~54.9% — we assess a slightly higher true probability (~56.5%), producing positive EV