Tristan Mccormick vs Luca Castagnola

Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for McCormick: ~63.5%
• • Our estimated true probability: 55% — below threshold for +EV at current odds

Pros

• + McCormick has some grass experience which could be advantageous
• + Home designation and shorter path in qualifiers can sometimes favor the listed home player

Cons

• - Both players show weak recent results in the provided samples
• - Castagnola has a larger overall match sample and similar win rate, making McCormick's market edge questionable

Details

We compare the market-implied probability for Tristan McCormick (1.575 => 63.5%) to our estimated win probability (55%). Both players show mixed recent form and limited decisive grass-track records in the provided profiles: McCormick has some grass experience but a losing recent run, while Castagnola has a larger sample overall but little/no grass history and also modest results. Given the modest upside from surface familiarity and the limited positive form signals, we estimate McCormick is overrated by the market and does not clear the required win-probability threshold (63.5%) to make a +EV play at the quoted 1.575 price. Therefore we recommend no bet; the price would need to be at least 1.818 (implying a required win probability of ~55%) or higher to consider value based on our model.

Key factors

• • Outdoor grass surface — McCormick has some grass experience; Castagnola has little/no recorded grass history
• • Recent form for both players is weak in the provided recent-match samples
• • Market implies a 63.5% chance for McCormick (1.575); our estimate is ~55%, below break-even