Highlights

• • Away 1.30 implies ~76.9% chance; we estimate ~72%
• • Underdog 3.30 implies ~30.3%; we estimate underdog chance closer to 28%, so no value there either

Pros

• + Clear market signal on the favorite; prices are widely available and stable
• + Surface (outdoor hard) is known, reducing one uncertainty

Cons

• - Quoted favorite price (1.30) is too short to offer positive EV under our probability estimate
• - Research lacks critical details (recent form, injuries, H2H) that could reveal overlooked value

Details

The market makes Bernard Tomic a heavy favorite at 1.30 (implied ~76.9%). Given the limited public information (only surface confirmed: outdoor hard) and no robust injury/form/H2H data in the research, we take a conservative model view that the away player’s true win probability is lower than the market-implied rate. We estimate Tomic's true win probability at 72.0% which yields a negative expected value at the quoted 1.30 price (EV = 0.72*1.30 - 1 = -0.064). The underdog (Huang) price of 3.30 implies ~30.3% and would require a true win probability >30.3% to be +EV; our view is that Huang’s true chance is closer to 28.0% (complement of 72%), so that price likewise does not present value. With no additional confirming data (recent form, H2H, injuries), we cannot justify a profitable edge at the current market prices and therefore recommend not to bet.

Key factors

• • Market heavily favors the away player (1.30), implying ~76.9% win probability
• • Only confirmed surface is outdoor hard; no additional form/injury/H2H data provided
• • Our conservative model estimate (72%) is below market-implied probability, producing negative EV