Tundra vs HEROIC
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We see no value at current prices: Tundra is slightly over-priced relative to our conservative 58% estimate, producing a negative EV at 1.621; we recommend no bet.
Highlights
- • Tundra implied by the market: ~61.7%, our estimate: 58.0%
- • Required fair odds for Tundra to be +EV: ~1.724 (market is 1.621)
Pros
- + Clear market favorite, so lines are tight and reflect consensus information
- + If additional positive intel on Tundra emerges, a small-value play could appear
Cons
- - Insufficient external data provided increases model uncertainty
- - Current price for Tundra (1.621) does not clear our conservative EV threshold
Details
We conservatively estimate Tundra is the stronger side but not as strongly as the market implies. The market decimal price for Tundra (1.621) implies ~61.7% win probability; after accounting for uncertainty, lack of current form/injury data, map-veto variance in Dota 2, and the bookmaker margin, we assign Tundra a true probability of 58.0%. At that probability the fair price would be ~1.724. Betting Tundra at 1.621 yields a negative expected value. The underdog (HEROIC) would require a true probability above ~43.3% to be +EV at 2.31; given our uncertainty we estimate HEROIC closer to 42%, so it also lacks value. With no reliable edge and the market already pricing a reasonable favorite, we recommend taking no side.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probability for Tundra (1.621) is ~61.7%, higher than our conservative estimate
- • No reliable recent data provided (form, roster changes, map stats) — increases uncertainty
- • Bookmaker margin (~5% combined implied >100%) reduces available value