Tung-Lin Wu vs Viktor Durasovic
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find small positive value backing Viktor Durasovic at 2.17 based on higher career win rate and recent form contrast; EV ≈ 4.2%.
Highlights
- • Durasovic estimated true win probability 48% vs market 46.1%
- • Minimum fair odds for value on Durasovic are ≈2.083; available price 2.17
Pros
- + Positive expected value at current odds (≈4.2% ROI)
- + Durasovic has more matches and a better overall win percentage
Cons
- - Edge is small and sensitive to uncertainty in form and missing head-to-head/context info
- - Both players show mixed recent form; no clear dominant trend
Details
The market prices Tung-Lin Wu at 1.63 (implied 61.4%) while Viktor Durasovic is 2.17 (implied 46.1%). From the available data Durasovic has a stronger overall win rate (34/63 ≈ 54%) versus Wu (21/46 ≈ 46%), more match volume and more consistent results on hard courts. Wu's recent results show consecutive losses; Durasovic's recent form is mixed but includes wins and more match experience. We estimate Durasovic's true win probability at 48%, which implies fair decimal odds of ~2.083; the offered 2.17 therefore contains positive expected value. Calculation: EV = 0.48 * 2.17 - 1 = 0.0416 (≈4.16% ROI). The market appears to overprice Wu relative to our model, creating a small value opportunity on Durasovic at 2.17.
Key factors
- • Durasovic's superior career win rate and larger match sample (34-29 vs 21-25)
- • Both players have recent hard-court activity; Wu has back-to-back losses in recent results
- • Market implied probability for Wu (61%) appears inflated vs both players' form and records