Highlights

• • Noah priced ~60.8% by market; we estimate ~63%
• • EV at current odds is small but positive (~3.6% ROI)

Pros

• + Noah's better recent results against comparable opposition
• + Market price offers a slight edge relative to our probability model

Cons

• - Extremely small sample sizes for both players make the estimate noisy
• - Edge is narrow; variance and match-specific factors (fitness, conditions) could flip the outcome

Details

We compare the market-implied probabilities to a data-driven estimate using the provided player records. Ty Host is 1-7 (12.5% raw win rate over 8 matches) and appears in poor recent form; Noah Brownrigg is 1-2 (33.3% raw win rate over 3 matches) and has the cleaner short-term record on comparable surfaces (hard/grass). The market prices Noah at decimal 1.645 (implied ~60.8%) and Ty at 2.13 (implied ~46.9%) after adjusting for overround. Given Noah's superior recent outcomes and surface parity, we estimate Noah's true win probability at 63.0%, slightly above the market-implied 60.8%, producing positive expected value at the current price. The edge is small and driven mainly by form differential and surface familiarity; sample sizes are very small which raises variance and execution risk.

Key factors

• • Noah Brownrigg's superior recent win rate versus Ty Host (1-2 vs 1-7)
• • Both players have experience on hard and grass — surface matchup is neutral
• • Market-implied probability for Noah (≈60.8%) slightly below our estimate (63%)
• • Very small sample sizes for both players increase uncertainty and variance