Tyler Stice vs Yanis Peterhans
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Market strongly overprices Tyler Stice; available performance data do not support the implied ~98% chance, so we recommend no bet at the current odds.
Highlights
- • Stice's provided career win rate (~33%) and recent form argue against a 98% market probability
- • You would need ~2.632 decimal odds on Stice to break even with our estimate
Pros
- + Market offers extreme odds on the underdog (13.0) if one believes Peterhans is much weaker
- + Clear discrepancy between market-implied probability and supplied performance metrics
Cons
- - Insufficient information on Yanis Peterhans in the provided research to justify backing him
- - Stice's recent form and overall record do not justify the market's near-certainty pricing
Details
We compare the market price (Tyler Stice 1.02, implied ~98.0%) to what the available data support. Tyler Stice's career record in the provided research is 9-18 (≈33% win rate) with very poor recent form (only 1 win shown in the most recent block of matches). There is no information on Yanis Peterhans in the provided research, so we cannot justify the market implying near-certainty for Stice. Conservatively adjusting for potential unknowns, we estimate Stice's true win probability at 38%. At the quoted home price of 1.02 the EV is negative (0.38*1.02 - 1 = -0.6124), so there is no value on Stice at current prices. To find value on Stice you would need decimal odds of at least 2.632. Given the large information gap on the opponent and the extreme market line, we do not recommend betting either side.
Key factors
- • Tyler Stice career record 9-18 (~33% win rate) from provided data
- • Very poor recent form in the supplied match list (only 1 win shown in recent block)
- • Market price (1.02) implies ~98% probability which is not supported by provided performance data