Highlights

• • Zink's provided win rate is materially better than Krueger's in the research set
• • Current odds (2.40) are above our fair threshold (2.222), giving positive EV

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current widely-available price
• + Comparable surface experience limits necessary adjustments

Cons

• - Research lacks head-to-head and detailed recent-match context; uncertainty remains
• - Both players have recent losses at high-level events, indicating form volatility

Details

We see value backing Tyler Zink at 2.40. The market implies Zink has ~41.7% chance (1/2.40) while Mitchell Krueger is favored at ~64.5% (1/1.55). Our assessment, based on the provided profiles, gives Zink a higher true chance than the market (we estimate ~45%) because Zink has a substantially better season win-loss profile (40-28, ~58.8% career win rate in the provided span) versus Krueger's 22-34 (~39.3%). Both players have recent hard-court activity (US Open/Cincinnati-level matches) so surface familiarity is comparable, reducing a major surface adjustment. With our estimated probability (45%) the minimum fair decimal odds are ~2.222; the current price 2.40 exceeds that, producing a positive expected value.

Key factors

• • Zink's stronger overall win-loss record in the provided span (40-28 vs 22-34)
• • Both players show recent hard-court activity, making surface adjustment small
• • Market implies Zink ~41.7% while our estimate is ~45%, creating positive edge