Highlights

• • Zink's better overall win rate suggests underpriced underdog status
• • Current market probability for Krueger (~70%) appears overstated

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current quoted odds
• + Stronger career win percentage and recent hard-court activity

Cons

• - Limited granularity on injuries, direct H2H, and match-specific conditions in research
• - Market favorite status for Krueger could reflect hidden factors not in provided data

Details

We believe Tyler Zink offers value at 2.75. His career win-loss record (40-28) is substantially stronger than Mitchell Krueger's (22-34), and both have recent activity on hard courts, which levels surface advantage. The market prices Krueger as a ~70% favorite (1.43), which appears inflated relative to form and head-to-head absence in the research. We estimate Zink's true win probability at 43%, which implies fair odds of ~2.326. At the current decimal 2.75 the expected value is positive (EV ≈ +0.183 per unit). Given available data, the 2.75 price provides a profitable edge under our model; we therefore recommend backing the home player.

Key factors

• • Career win-loss advantage for Tyler Zink (40-28 vs 22-34)
• • Both players recently competed on hard courts — neutral surface impact
• • Market heavily favors Krueger (1.43) creating a potential mispricing