Tyler Stice vs Remy Bertola
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Market heavily favors Bertola but the price (1.134) overstates his chance versus our 82% estimate; no value at current odds—pass unless Bertola drifts to ≥1.220.
Highlights
- • Market-implied probability for Bertola: ~88.2%
- • Our estimated fair price for Bertola: ~1.220 (82% win chance)
Pros
- + Bertola is the stronger, more experienced player with better recent results
- + Stice’s record and form make an upset unlikely, supporting a low true probability for the home player
Cons
- - Market has already priced Bertola tightly — no positive EV at current quotes
- - Small-sample and lower-tier events carry variance; edges are narrow and require precise pricing
Details
We compare the market price (Remy Bertola 1.134 decimal, implied ~88.2%) to our estimated true probability for Bertola of 82%. Bertola is the clear favourite based on career record (45-33 vs 9-18), greater match volume, and more consistent recent results, especially on clay-type events, but the market price overstates his chance. At our estimated 82% win probability the fair decimal price is ~1.220; the available 1.134 does not offer positive expected value (EV = 0.82 * 1.134 - 1 ≈ -0.070). Stice’s limited wins and poorer recent form make him unlikely to offer value at 6.94. Therefore we do not recommend a side at current odds; wait for Bertola to drift to >= 1.220 (or an equivalent line) before taking the favourite.
Key factors
- • Remy Bertola has a substantially better career record and more match experience
- • Tyler Stice’s recent form and limited wins suggest a low upset probability
- • Market implies ~88.2% for Bertola; our model estimates ~82% — no positive edge
- • Surface/venue likely favor the more consistent player (Bertola) but not to the extent the odds imply