Highlights

• • Current market heavily favors Chazal (1.252) but may underprice upset risk on grass
• • Min required odds for value are 3.571; current 3.8 exceeds that

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current odds (EV ~0.064)
• + High model uncertainty on grass increases chance for underdog value

Cons

• - Both players show poor recent form and limited grass data, raising variance
• - Chazal's larger match sample and slightly better career record mean risk remains significant

Details

The market strongly favors Chazal at 1.252 (implied ~79.9%). However, both players show limited recent form and most of their recorded matches are on clay/hard rather than grass, increasing model uncertainty and the chance of an upset. Given Chazal's recent losses and Bieldiugin's comparable Challenger-level experience, we estimate Tymur Bieldiugin's true win probability meaningfully above the market-implied 26.3% for the 3.8 price. At our estimated probability (0.28) the 3.8 quote offers positive expected value (EV = 0.064 per unit). We therefore recommend a bet on the home underdog only because the current decimal price exceeds our min-required odds threshold (3.571).

Key factors

• • Both players primarily have clay/hard match histories; grass form is uncertain, increasing upset potential
• • Chazal is market favorite but shows recent losses and inconsistent recent results
• • Bieldiugin has fewer matches but comparable Challenger-level experience; variance favors underdog value