USA vs Czech Republic
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find modest value backing the Czech Republic at 2.81 based on a conservative 38% true probability estimate, yielding roughly a 6.8% expected ROI.
Highlights
- • Market underestimates Czech chance by ~2.4 percentage points versus our estimate
- • Positive expected value at current widely-available prices (EV ≈ 0.0678)
Pros
- + Positive expected value at current odds
- + Conservative probability protects against overconfidence given limited info
Cons
- - Significant uncertainty around actual Davis Cup line-ups and surface/venue specifics
- - Home advantage for USA could be larger than we estimated, reducing realized EV
Details
We compare the market prices to our conservative probability estimate and find value on the Czech Republic at current odds. The market decimal odds of 2.81 imply about a 35.6% chance (1/2.81). Given the unknown team line-ups but accounting for Davis Cup variability (home advantage, possible top-player absences, doubles importance) we conservatively estimate the Czech Republic's true chance at 38% (0.38). EV calculation: EV = p * odds - 1 = 0.38 * 2.81 - 1 = 0.0678 (6.78% ROI per 1 unit stake). Because EV > 0 at the prevailing price, we recommend the away side. We remain conservative in our probability to account for limited information and the strong home factor for the USA.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probability for Czech Republic is ~35.6% at 2.81
- • We estimate Czech Republic win probability at 38% after conservative adjustment for unknown lineups and Davis Cup dynamics
- • Home advantage for USA is real but uncertainty about player availability reduces the gap