Highlights

• • Park's career win rate (~32%) and recent losses weaken her implied chance
• • Current home price 1.80 exceeds our fair price (~1.538), producing positive EV

Pros

• + Market understates home probability relative to Park's documented poor form
• + Clear numerical edge: implied vs. estimated true probability gap

Cons

• - Limited information on Ui Su Jeong means our probability has model risk
• - No head-to-head, injury, or explicit surface conditions provided to refine the estimate

Details

We assess value on the home side (Ui Su Jeong). The available research shows Eunyeong Park has a limited winning record (10-21, ~32% career win rate) and poor recent form with multiple losses in her last matches. The market prices list Ui Su Jeong at 1.80 (implied 55.6%); given Park's weak record and recent form and absent evidence that Park performs substantially better on this surface or that Ui is significantly impaired, we estimate Ui Su Jeong's true win probability around 65%. At that probability the fair decimal price is ~1.538, so the current 1.80 offers positive expected value. We acknowledge the information gap (no profile for Ui Su Jeong, no H2H, surface details), so our probability is conservative but still shows value versus the quoted odds.

Key factors

• • Eunyeong Park career record 10-21 (~32% win rate) indicating weak overall form
• • Recent match results show multiple losses and poor short-term form
• • Book market implies home ~55.6% while our read assigns ~65%, creating value