Highlights

• • Market implies ~69% for Radwanska; our model ~72% → small value
• • Edge driven by experience and larger, more reliable performance sample

Pros

• + Significantly greater career/match experience
• + More predictable outcomes on hard courts due to larger sample size

Cons

• - Recent form shows losses for Radwanska, introducing short-term uncertainty
• - Vlasselaer has service metrics that can produce upsets on hard courts

Details

We assess value on Urszula Radwanska (home). The market gives her decimal 1.45 (implied win probability ~68.97%). From the provided profiles, Radwanska has vast experience (over 1,000 career matches) and demonstrated competence on hard courts, while Clara Vlasselaer is early in her career (32 matches, 10-22) with limited win history. Both players show recent losses, but Radwanska's experience and larger sample size reduce variance and give us higher confidence in projecting her win rate. Conservatively we estimate Radwanska's true win probability at 72.0%, which implies fair odds of 1.389. Because the available price (1.45) is higher than our fair odds, the play shows positive expected value. We factor in some uncertainty from Radwanska's recent form and Vlasselaer's aggressive serving stats on hard courts, so the edge is modest but still positive at the quoted price.

Key factors

• • Large experience gap favors Radwanska (much larger career sample, more match toughness)
• • Surface alignment: both have hard-court experience; Radwanska's broader history gives reliability on hard
• • Vlasselaer's limited career (10-22) creates higher variance but lower baseline win expectancy