Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Urszula: ~31.1%; our estimate: 42%
• • Required fair odds for value: ~2.381; current offer 3.22

Pros

• + Large career sample and multi-surface experience in Urszula's profile
• + Current decimal price (3.22) offers a sizable theoretical edge

Cons

• - Both players show recent losses; form is shaky for each
• - No head-to-head data or explicit surface/venue confirmation in research

Details

We see a clear value disparity: the market prices Urszula Radwanska at 3.22 (implied ~31.1% win chance) while her career data shows a substantially higher long-term win rate and broader experience across surfaces compared with Tessah Andrianjafitrimo's limited match sample and lower career win percentage. Both players have recent losses, but Urszula's extensive match history and demonstrated competence on multiple surfaces (including clay and hard) make her less likely to be a 31% underdog in an ITF R16 matchup. Conservatively estimating Urszula's true chance at 42% produces a required fair decimal price of ~2.381; the offered 3.22 is well above that threshold, yielding positive expected value. Caveats: both players show recent poor form and we lack H2H or explicit surface/venue confirmation, so we apply a conservative probability rather than an aggressive projection.

Key factors

• • Urszula's much larger career sample and higher overall win rate
• • Tessah's limited match sample and lower career win percentage
• • Market implies only ~31% for Urszula versus our conservative 42% estimate