Highlights

• • Away implied probability ~90.1% (1.11 decimal)
• • Home needs >17.4% win probability to be profitable at 5.75

Pros

• + We adopt a conservative approach in the absence of data to avoid overrating an underdog
• + Clear math-based threshold (min required odds 8.333) showing where value would appear

Cons

• - No specific team-level information means true probabilities are uncertain
• - If hidden factors favor the home team, our conservative estimate could understate value

Details

We have no independent match data, form, injuries, surface or H2H information to challenge the market. The market-implied probability for the away side at decimal 1.11 is ~90.1%, which leaves only ~9.9% for the home pair; the posted home price of 5.75 implies a required win probability of 17.4% to break even. Using a conservative, information-sparse estimate for the home pair of 12% true win probability, the expected value at the current home price is negative. Given the lack of research and the heavy market favoritism to the away team, there is no clear value bet on either side at these prices.

Key factors

• • No external research or recent form/injury/H2H data available
• • Market strongly favors away team at 1.11 (implied ~90.1%)
• • Conservative true probability for home estimated at 12%, well below break-even threshold