V. De Carvalho/A. Nagel vs O. Poulsen/N. Slavic

Highlights

• • Away implied probability at 1.06 is ~94.3%, we estimate ~90% true probability
• • Current price produces a negative EV (-4.6% on a 1-unit stake)

Pros

• + Away is heavily favored, reflecting presumed superiority
• + If our conservative estimate is too low, small positive EV could exist — but that is speculative

Cons

• - Offered odds (1.06) are too short to cover model uncertainty or variance
• - No external data (form, injuries, H2H) available to justify taking such a short price

Details

The away side is priced extremely short at 1.06 (implied win probability ~94.3%). With no external research available and given the inherent variance in doubles matches and lower-tier events, we take a conservative true win probability of 90% for the away team. At that estimate the fair decimal price would be ~1.111; the offered 1.06 yields a negative expected value (EV = 0.90 * 1.06 - 1 = -0.046). The market would need to offer at least 1.111 for the bet to be profitable against our conservative estimate, so we do not recommend a wager at current prices.

Key factors

• • Extremely short market price for the away team (1.06) leaves no margin for model error
• • No independent research available; we apply conservative assumptions about true probability
• • Doubles matches and lower-tier events carry higher upset variance than singles/high-level events