V. Panshina/D. Zelinskaya vs Fangzhou Liu/Jiaqi Wang
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find small positive value on the home moneyline at 1.73 based on the away pairing's weak recent form and our 60% estimated win probability for the home team.
Highlights
- • Home implied prob: ~57.8%; our estimate: 60%
- • Small positive EV: ~3.8% ROI at current odds
Pros
- + Current odds (1.73) exceed the breakeven odds for our estimated probability (1.667)
- + Away team form in the research is poor, supporting a slightly higher true probability for the home side
Cons
- - Data on the home pairing is not provided in the research, increasing model uncertainty
- - EV is modest (small margin) and sensitive to estimation error
Details
We estimate the home pairing V. Panshina/D. Zelinskaya has a true win probability materially above the market-implied probability for the 1.73 moneyline. The current market-implied probability for the home side is about 57.8% (1/1.73). Research on the away tandem (Fangzhou Liu/Jiaqi Wang) shows weak recent form (both players with 10-21 records and several recent losses), suggesting the market may be overrating the away team's chances. Given the absence of any positive information on the away duo and the home price at 1.73, we calculate a conservative true probability of 60% for the home team. At that probability the minimum fair decimal price is 1.667, so the offered 1.73 contains small positive expected value.
Key factors
- • Away players (Liu/Wang) display poor recent records (10-21 each) and multiple recent losses
- • Market-implied home probability (1.73) is ~57.8%; our conservative estimate for home is 60%
- • No positive confirmation in the provided research for the away pairing or surface advantage