V. Remondy Pagotto/J. Scramin do Lago vs Boscardin Dias, P/Ribeiro Marcondes, I

Highlights

• • Away implied probability (1.13) > our conservative true probability (85%) — no value
• • Home at 5.50 looks tempting but still negative EV under conservative estimates

Pros

• + Market is efficient in heavily favoring the away team, reducing surprise risk
• + Transparent, conservative stance given lack of data

Cons

• - High uncertainty due to no surface/form/injury/H2H info
• - Potential for sharp lines from correlated markets that we cannot assess here

Details

We have no external match-level data, so we apply conservative priors. The market prices the away team at 1.13 (implied win probability ~88.5%). Given the lack of information on surface, form, injuries or head-to-head, we reduce our confidence and estimate the away team's true win probability at 85.0%. At that probability the fair decimal price is 1.176 (1/0.85). The current price 1.13 is shorter than fair, producing a negative expected value (EV = 0.85*1.13 - 1 = -0.0395). The home underdog at 5.50 implies ~18.18% and, under a conservative estimate for the underdog of 15.0%, also produces negative EV (0.15*5.5 - 1 = -0.175). Because neither side offers positive EV at the quoted prices, we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • No match-specific data available (surface, form, injuries, H2H) — higher uncertainty
• • Market strongly favors the away team (1.13 implies ~88.5%); our conservative true estimate is lower (85%)
• • Underdog price (5.50) does not show value under conservative probability estimate