Highlights

• • Market favors away pair at 1.75 but margins remove potential value
• • Our conservative 53% probability does not produce positive EV at current prices

Pros

• + Away price is the market favorite, aligning with our slight probability edge
• + We used a conservative probability to avoid overstating value

Cons

• - No specific player/pair data to justify a stronger edge
• - Bookmaker vig means current quotes do not reach break-even thresholds for our estimate

Details

We have no external form, surface, injury, or H2H data and must therefore be conservative. The market prices the away pair as a modest favorite (1.75) with an implied edge even after normalizing for vig. Our conservative estimated win probability for S. Sakellaridis/K. Singh is 53.0% (0.53). At the available decimal price (1.75) that estimate yields a negative EV once bookmaker margin is accounted for, so we do not find value to recommend a bet. We therefore recommend no side at current prices and provide the minimum odds that would justify a wager based on our probability.

Key factors

• • No available data on form, surface, injuries, or direct H2H — must assume conservative probabilities
• • Market-implied probability (after removing overround) is close to our estimate, leaving little to no margin
• • Bookmaker overround (~7.6%) makes short-priced favorites harder to back for positive EV