V. Iakubenko/P. Makk vs A. Boros/B. Boros

Highlights

• • Home implied probability at 1.58 = ~63.3%, our conservative estimate = 60%
• • Break-even odds for our estimate: 1.667 (current price 1.58 is too short)

Pros

• + Market favors the home team, indicating perceived strength
• + Odds are widely available and liquid

Cons

• - No reliable external data on form, surface fit, or injuries — increased uncertainty
• - Current home price (1.58) does not offer value relative to our conservative probability

Details

With no external form, surface, injury, or H2H data available, we apply a conservative model: the market prices the home pair at decimal 1.58 (implied ~63.3%). We estimate a true win probability for the home side of 60% given uncertainty and the tendency for books to slightly overstate favorites. That estimate produces a negative expected return at the current favorite price (EV = 0.60 * 1.58 - 1 = -0.052). The away side (implied ~44.4%) is similarly unattractive under our assumptions. Because neither side yields positive expected value at current prices, we recommend no bet and specify the break-even odds threshold for the probability we assigned.

Key factors

• • No independent form, injury, surface, or H2H data available — increases uncertainty
• • Market-implied probability for home (1.58) exceeds our conservative true probability estimate (0.60)
• • Small margin between market and our estimate — no positive expected value at posted prices