V. Manikantan/D. Sahoo vs V. Iakubenko/P. Makk

Highlights

• • Home at 11.0 offers a break-even threshold of 10.0 decimal odds; current price is slightly better
• • Away at 1.04 would need >96.15% true probability to be profitable — unlikely without concrete confirming info

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current price under our conservative estimate
• + Market appears to overprice the favorite, creating value on the underdog

Cons

• - Very limited information; outcome uncertainty is high
• - Longshot bets are high variance and prone to losing streaks despite positive EV

Details

We have no external data and proceed conservatively. The market prices the away pair as an overwhelming favorite at 1.04 (implied chance ~96.15%), which is implausibly high without injury or withdrawal information. For the home pair at 11.0 (implied ~9.09%), we estimate a more realistic chance of about 10.0% given typical upset frequency in lower-tier doubles and the uncertainty in the market. At that estimated true probability the home side shows positive expected value: 0.10 * 11.0 - 1 = +0.10 (10% ROI). We favour the longshot only because the quoted away price is extremely short and likely understates upset risk; however, this is a high-variance play driven by market skew and lack of information.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for away (1.04) is extremely high (~96%) and likely overconfident
• • Underdog at 11.0 requires only ~9.09% true win chance to break even; we conservatively estimate ~10%
• • No available injury/withdrawal or form data increases uncertainty and raises the value of taking a priced longshot