Highlights

• • Our fair probability for Vadym: 62%
• • Required decimal odds for positive EV on that estimate: >= 1.613

Pros

• + Vadym has more match exposure and recent play on the same hard-court event
• + Felix's record and recent inactivity create additional uncertainty that slightly favors the more active player

Cons

• - Both players have very limited and poor win-loss records, increasing variance
• - Current market price for Vadym is too short to generate positive expected value per our model

Details

We estimate Vadym Konovchuk's true match-win probability at 62% based on his greater match activity at this event and slightly more recent hard-court play, while Felix Mischker has a very small sample of matches and limited form evidence. The market price for Vadym is 1.505 (implied ~66.4%), which is higher than our assessed probability when converted to fair odds. Calculating EV at the quoted home price: EV = 0.62 * 1.505 - 1 = -0.067, so the current price offers negative expected value versus our model. To achieve positive EV on our estimate we would need decimal odds >= 1.613. Given small sample sizes, inconsistent results for both players, and limited data depth, we decline to recommend a back at the current odds.

Key factors

• • Vadym has more recent match activity at this tournament/venue (M25 Bali) and more matches overall
• • Both players have poor overall records and very small sample sizes, increasing uncertainty
• • Market odds (1.505) imply ~66% for the home but our assessment is ~62%, producing negative EV