Vadym Konovchuk vs Felix Mischker

Highlights

• • Bookmakers price Konovchuk at ~60.9% (1.641) but his form/sample suggest less separation
• • Mischker at 2.25 offers a small positive EV (~5.8% ROI) based on our probability estimate

Pros

• + Away price exceeds our minimum fair odds (2.128) for Mischker
• + Both players' small sample sizes increase likelihood of market inefficiency

Cons

• - Very small sample sizes and generally poor records increase variance and uncertainty
• - Home factor and Konovchuk's greater activity in Bali could be understated in our model

Details

We compared the bookmaker-implied probabilities to our assessment based on the provided player profiles. Vadym Konovchuk has a larger sample of recent matches (15, 3-12) and more activity in Bali on hard courts, which likely explains the market favoring him at 1.641 (implied ~60.9%). Felix Mischker has a much smaller sample (4 matches, 1-3) but also plays primarily on hard. Given small sample sizes and similar surface experience, we view the match as much closer than the market price implies. We estimate Konovchuk's true win probability at ~53% and Mischker at ~47%. At the current away price of 2.25 (implied ~44.4%), Mischker offers positive expected value: EV = 0.47 * 2.25 - 1 = ~0.058. The margin is modest and sensitive to our probability estimate, but it represents value versus the market price after accounting for home/activity factors.

Key factors

• • Both players have limited and poor win records; small samples increase uncertainty
• • Konovchuk has played more recently and more matches in Bali on hard, justifying some market favoritism
• • Current away price (2.25) implies a lower probability than our estimate, creating modest value