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Valencia Basket vs ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne play on 2026-02-12 19:30 in the Euroleague (basketball). Compare basketball odds, line movement, and our model’s edge before placing your bet.
Estimated value edge: 73.6%. Suggested side: ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne. Moneyline — Home: 1.13 (88.5%), Away: 6.2 (16.1%).
High-scoring 5v5 with a 24-second shot clock; NBA and global leagues.
Our lean: ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne. This pick is based on expected value and current odds.
Home: 1.13, Away: 6.2. Odds may update frequently.
Best bet: ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne moneyline given current prices.
We view value on ASVEL (away) because the market moneyline (Valencia 1.13 => implied ~88.5%) appears to overstate Valencia's win probability relative to independent model output (Forebet assigns Valencia ~72%). Inverting that model gives ASVEL a ~28% win chance. At the offered away odds of 6.20 (implied 16.1%), our estimated true probability (28%) yields positive expected value. The market contains vig and exaggerates the home edge; given Valencia's strong but not overwhelming model probability and ASVEL's reasonable upset potential, backing the away side at 6.20 is a value play.
Summary: We find value on ASVEL at 6.20 because independent probabilities (~28% for ASVEL) are well above the market-implied ~16%, producing a positive EV of ~0.736 per unit staked.