Valentina Mediorreal Arias vs Candela Vazquez
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We recommend backing the home player (Valentina Mediorreal Arias) — our model estimates ~61.9% chance to win while current odds of 2.66 imply only ~37.6%, producing meaningful positive expected value.
Highlights
- • Career win-rate-based model gives Valentina ~61.9% win probability
- • Current home odds 2.66 imply EV ≈ +0.647 on a 1-unit stake
Pros
- + Clear discrepancy between market odds and career-win-rate implied probability
- + Large career sample for Valentina reduces noise in her baseline strength estimate
Cons
- - Both players show recent losses in the limited recent-match data provided
- - Candela's small career sample and potential unobserved factors could justify market favoritism
Details
We find value on the home player (Valentina Mediorreal Arias). The market strongly favors Candela Vazquez at 1.415 (implied ~70.6%), but career-level data in the research show Valentina with a substantially higher long-term win rate (559–507, ~52.4%) versus Candela's 10–21 (~32.3%). Using those win rates as a baseline and converting to a head-to-head probability (Valentina winrate / (Valentina winrate + Candela winrate)) yields an estimated true win probability near 61.9%. At the current home moneyline of 2.66 this produces EV = 0.619 * 2.66 - 1 ≈ +0.647 (64.7% ROI on a 1-unit stake), meaning the book is offering significantly superior odds to our estimated fair price. We acknowledge recent losses for both players in the provided recent-match snippets and the small sample size for Candela, so we discount somewhat for uncertainty, but even conservatively adjusted the market looks mispriced in favor of a Valentina bet.
Key factors
- • Valentina's much larger career sample and higher career win rate (559-507 ≈ 52.4%)
- • Candela's limited sample and lower career win rate (10-21 ≈ 32.3%)
- • Market strongly favors Candela (1.415) creating a potential mispricing opportunity