Highlights

• • Career winning baseline (52.4%) supports underdog upside versus raw market price
• • Current price 5.75 > fair price 5.0 implied by our 20% estimate

Pros

• + Significant implied value relative to our blended probability estimate
• + Decent career winning record gives basis for a recovery/variance call

Cons

• - Recent results in the profile are losses, indicating form concerns
• - No opponent, H2H, injury, or surface-specific data provided to refine the model

Details

The market heavily favors the away player at 1.12 (implied 89.3%); the home price of 5.75 implies a 17.39% chance. Valentina Mediorreal Arias's career win rate is ~52.4% (559/1066), which establishes a solid baseline despite age and fluctuations. Her very recent results shown in the profile indicate losses and form deterioration, so we discount the career baseline. Balancing career win-rate (52.4%) with recent weak form and the absence of opponent/H2H data, we estimate a true win probability of 20% for Valentina. At that probability the fair decimal price is 5.0, so the offered 5.75 contains value: EV = 0.20 * 5.75 - 1 = +0.15 (15% ROI). We recognize substantial uncertainty due to limited and negative recent form and missing opponent/venue specifics, but the current market price overstates the away player relative to our blended probability estimate.

Key factors

• • Career win rate 559/1066 (~52.4%) provides a baseline chance
• • Recent results in the profile show recent losses and form deterioration
• • Market strongly favors away (1.12); home at 5.75 appears overpriced relative to a conservative true probability