Valentina Vachkova vs Eliska Tichackova
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: The market price on Tichackova (1.12) implies an unrealistic win probability given her documented 10-21 record and recent losses; there is no value to back either side at the current prices.
Highlights
- • Market implies ~89.3% for Tichackova vs our estimated ~33%
- • Required decimal odds for value on our estimate would be ~3.03 or longer
Pros
- + Tichackova is the market favorite and likely favored for a reason not present in the provided data
- + If unseen contextual factors exist (injury to opponent, retirement, walkover), market price could be justified
Cons
- - Provided performance data (10-21 record, recent losses) points to substantially lower true win probability than market implies
- - Huge downside: betting the favorite at 1.12 gives a large negative expected value with our probability estimate
Details
We assess that the market is strongly favoring Eliska Tichackova at 1.12 (implied ~89.3%), but her recorded form in the provided research (10-21 career record, ~32% win rate with poor recent results) does not support an ~89% true win probability. Without evidence that Valentina Vachkova is substantially weaker (no data provided), the sensible inference is that Tichackova's true win probability is far lower than the market implies, so there is no positive EV at the quoted prices. We therefore recommend no side; the away price is massively overestimated by the market and would produce a large negative expected value at current odds.
Key factors
- • Tichackova's documented career win rate in the research is ~32% (10-21), which is far below the market-implied probability of 89.3%
- • Recent match results in the provided data show losses and weak form rather than a strong winning trend
- • No supporting data provided showing the opponent is weak enough to justify the market’s heavy favoritism