Highlights

• • Alves' career win rate (~43%) and recent losses argue against a 94% implied chance
• • We estimate Alves' win probability ≈70%, so current odds produce negative EV

Pros

• + Alves is the clear market favorite, indicating the bookmaker expects a routine win
• + If additional information (opponent injury/retirement) emerges, market could justify the price

Cons

• - Available form and career record do not support the extremely high market-implied probability
• - No data on the opponent or surface-specific matchup to justify taking the short price

Details

We see the market strongly favors Mateus Alves at 1.064 (implied ~93.98%). Using only the provided player data, Alves has a 21-28 career record (≈43% win rate) and recent form shows multiple losses on hard courts. Without any evidence of an injury to Alves or clear confirming data on the underdog (Valentino Grippo), we conservatively estimate Alves' true win probability materially below the market-implied price. At our estimated probability (0.70) the bet on Alves at 1.064 is negative-expected-value (EV = 0.70 * 1.064 - 1 = -0.255). Therefore we do not recommend backing either side at the quoted prices — the favorite is overpriced by the market relative to our estimate and the underdog would require astronomically higher odds to be attractive.

Key factors

• • Mateus Alves career record 21-28 (≈43% overall) suggests limited baseline winning consistency
• • Recent matches show losses on hard courts, indicating form is not strong
• • Market-implied probability (≈93.98%) is far higher than any realistic estimate based on available data