Highlights

• • Market implies Xi Luo ~33.7% but we estimate ~46%
• • Positive EV of ~0.366 at current away odds (2.97)

Pros

• + Large gap between our probability estimate and the market-implied probability
• + No injury or surface disadvantage evident in the provided data

Cons

• - Both players show poor recent results, increasing variance and upset risk
• - Limited data and lack of head-to-head make the estimate less certain

Details

We estimate Xi Luo has a materially higher win probability than the market implies. Both players show nearly identical career records (10-21) and recent form in the provided data, suggesting no large intrinsic gap; home-court advantage in tennis is limited and there are no injury notes to favor Valeria Savinykh. The market prices Savinykh at 1.356 (implied ~73.8%) and Luo at 2.97 (implied ~33.7%), which appears skewed toward the home player. We conservatively estimate Xi Luo's true probability at 46%, well above the 33.7% implied by 2.97, creating positive expected value. Calculation: EV = 0.46 * 2.97 - 1 = +0.3662 (36.6% ROI on a 1-unit stake). Given the similar form, surface exposure and lack of disqualifying information, backing the away player at current prices represents value.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical records and recent form in the provided data
• • No clear surface or injury advantage in the research supplied
• • Market heavily favors the home player, implying an undervaluation of the away player