Highlights

• • Home implied probability 94.3% vs our conservative estimate 92.0%
• • Away needs >11.11% true chance to be +EV at 9.00, which we find unlikely

Pros

• + Market price reflects a clear favorite, minimizing chance of surprise payout
• + Conservative probability reduces risk of overestimating an upset

Cons

• - Current favorite price (1.06) gives negative expected ROI under our estimate
• - Large uncertainty due to absence of form, injury, surface and H2H data

Details

The market prices Valerie Hutkova at 1.06 (implied 94.34%) and Izabel Kuzmanova at 9.00 (implied 11.11%). With no external form, injury, surface or H2H data available, we make conservative assumptions: the home favorite is very likely to win but not certain. We estimate Valerie's true win probability at 92.0% (0.92). At the quoted home price (1.06) the expected ROI is negative (EV = 0.92*1.06 - 1 = -0.025), so there is no value backing the favorite. Backing the away player at 9.00 would require her true win probability to exceed ~11.11% to be profitable; given the heavy-market favoritism and lack of contrary evidence, we estimate her true win probability well below that threshold, so the away price also offers no value. Therefore we recommend taking no bet at the current prices.

Key factors

• • Market strongly favors the home player (1.06) implying ~94% win probability
• • No external data (form, injuries, surface, H2H) available — we apply conservative assumptions
• • To be profitable on the underdog at 9.00 would require >11.11% true chance, which we judge unlikely