Highlights

• • Away priced at ~1.107 implies >90% win chance — unsupported by the profiles
• • Home at 5.99 requires only ~16.7% true chance to be +EV; our 25% estimate gives substantial value

Pros

• + Large market mispricing creates meaningful positive EV at current odds
• + Profiles suggest a balanced matchup rather than a near-certain favorite

Cons

• - Research is limited and duplicates the same sparse profile data for both players
• - If there is undisclosed injury/withdrawal for the underdog or late info favoring the favorite, EV disappears

Details

The market prices Elena Korokozidi at ~1.107 (≈90.3% implied) which requires an extremely high true-win probability to be fair. The provided profiles show near-identical career records and recent form for both players with no injury or surface advantage reported, implying a much more balanced matchup than the market suggests. We conservatively estimate Valeriia Artemeva's true chance at 25%; at decimal 5.99 that yields positive expected value (EV = 0.25*5.99 - 1 ≈ 0.498). Absent clear evidence justifying a >90% probability for Korokozidi, the heavy favorite price looks overpriced against a plausible 20–30% chance for Artemeva, producing value on the home moneyline.

Key factors

• • Both players show virtually identical career records and surfaces played in the provided data
• • No injury, withdrawal, or clear form advantage noted for the favorite in the research
• • Market implies an implausibly high win probability (~90%) for the away player given available information